Pipeliners

MOSCOW, (Igor Tomberg, senior researcher, Foreign Economic Studies Center, Institute of International Economic and Political Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, for RIA Novosti) - The Eastern Pipeline's route is still shrouded in mystery. Although Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov signed the relevant resolution at the end of last year, neither the resolution, nor a detailed feasibility study has been published. "The Russian government and President Vladimir Putin have made it clear that once the Siberian oil pipeline has been completed, priority will be given to China," Chinese Prime Minister Wen Ziabao said on March 14. No official denials have followed, which means that Japan's key role in the pipeline project has been put in question. Many column inches have been dedicated to how important the pipeline is for Daqing, the center of China's oil industry, while Beijing has had to continually deny accusations that it is provoking higher oil prices. Even Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing had to speak on the issue a day or two ago. He dismissed claims that the global oil prices were growing because Chinese industry was consuming more energy. The minister admitted that the Chinese energy hydrocarbon imports had increased, but said they only accounted for 6% of the oil sold on the global oil market. However, he chose not to mention that the increase in China's crude imports was 35% in 2004. The Japanese efforts to lobby for an oil pipeline all the way to the Pacific can hardly be stopped. The need for Siberian oil and the striving to outstrip China in demand have even resulted in Japan's territorial claims becoming less vociferous. The New York Times referred to Tokyo's Mayor Shintaro Ishihara, Japan's best-known nationalist, as saying that Japan, the United States and Russia should pool their efforts on the oil pipeline project, as this will make a great contribution to containing China, which has no resources of its own. However, the recent chill in the Russian-Japanese relations and refusal of the Japanese prime minister to attend the celebrations of the 60th anniversary of VE Day in Moscow have caused friction between the two countries, which has allowed China to make a move. In any case, the Chinese premier's recent statement could hardly have been made on the spur of the moment. It seems that Russia has an advantage in this game, but it has to be used skillfully. Obviously, Russia has to walk a tightrope, trying to balance between its assertive partners in Beijing and Tokyo, as well as South Korea, which has recently indicated its willingness to join the construction of the Eastern Pipeline. According to Transneft's president, Semyon Vainshtok, the pipeline project looks to be fairly flexible. It should be implemented stage by stage. The first leg will run to Skovorodino with possible oil deliveries to China. The second leg will include a railroad to the sea terminal to be built by then. The third leg to the city of Nakhodka will be built while the East Siberian oilfields are commissioned. According to Mr. Vainshtok, the Eastern Siberia-Pacific project does not boil down to the pipeline only. It has a whole number of aspects to develop the productive power and social infrastructure of Siberia and the Russian Far East, enabling the declining population to remain in the region and bolstering Russia's influence in the Eastern Hemisphere.